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作者：郗胡平 薛涵哲
当前，美欧等发达国家面临严重通货膨胀局面，5月份，美国CPI同比上涨8.6%，创40年新高；欧元区CPI同比上涨8.1%，续刷成立以来历史新高。受通胀流动性和传导性影响，通胀可能进一步波及全球。近期，国际货币基金组织大幅调升全年新兴市场和发展中经济体平均通胀率预期。高通胀将引发物价上涨，降低居民的生活水平，削弱企业活力和经济增长潜力，增加全球陷入“滞胀”的担忧。究竟谁是此轮全球通胀的罪魁祸首？
美国财政货币“双放水”是元凶。为应对新冠肺炎疫情冲击，美联储于2020年3月两度紧急降息，采取开放式量化宽松政策，被媒体形容为“开直升机撒钱”。2020年2月末至2022年3月末，美联储总资产规模由4.21万亿美元迅速扩张至近9万亿美元，两年时间累计增长了1倍多。同时，疫情暴发至今，美国政府财政纾困救助总金额超过6万亿美元，美国联邦政府财政赤字从2019年的9840亿美元升至2020年的3.1万美元，财政赤字占GDP比重由2019年的4.6%跃升至2020年的14.9%。美联储货币“大放水”与财政“大刺激”共同作用，不仅直接推高了美国国内的消费价格，还推动国际大宗商品价格快速上升，给其他国家带来输入性通胀压力，成为全球性通胀的重要推手。
全球供应链“掉链子”是催化剂。全球产业链供应链紊乱始于美国特朗普政府发起贸易战，激化于新冠肺炎疫情与乌克兰危机。全球化时代，商品生产全球化程度不断加深，生产链复杂且分散。而供应链受阻则导致需求供给长期持续错配，需求在积压释放反弹的同时，供给无法跟上，进而推高大宗商品价格，通胀水平高企。特别是近一年来美西方国家疫情多轮大范围反复，严重影响了生产、运输、装卸、销售等各个经济环节，芯片短缺、能源供应不足、航运不畅、运费暴涨、食材中断、劳动力短缺等问题“雪上加霜”。其中，汽车等供应链较长的商品将面临更大的价格效应。由于全球供应链和价值链需要相当长的时间来整合及重新配置，短期内全球产业链供应链紧张程度和不稳定性很难得到缓解。
粮食和能源等大宗商品价格高涨是“最后一根稻草”。俄乌两国是粮食和能源的重要出口国，一些国家对俄乌两国的粮食和能源依赖性很强，西方国家对俄制裁和俄反制裁的斗争，导致全球粮食和能源供应收紧，引发价格大幅上涨。根据联合国粮农组织（FAO）统计，截至2022年5月，与2020年同期相比，谷物和油脂价格指数分别增长77%、195%；食品价格指数增长72%，达157.4，达到近10年最高水平。从期货市场看，芝加哥商品交易所2022年第23周（6月6-12日）小麦、玉米、豆油期货合约收盘均价每吨分别为396美元、300美元、638美元。乌克兰危机爆发后，伦敦布伦特原油期货价格一度触及139美元/桶，创14年来新高；纽约商品期货交易所天然气价格同比增长超过90%。能源和粮食价格与居民生活息息相关，而且会直接传导至消费品，进一步加剧全球通胀。
面对全球性通胀，我国物价水平远低于美欧等主要经济体，整体表现出一个“稳”字，这是难能可贵且来之不易的。同时，我国物价的稳定，对全球物价发挥了重要的“稳定器”“压舱石”作用。全球通胀短期来看或难以遏制，中国部分商品价格短期受到资源禀赋等客观条件限制也不可避免冲高。但长期来看，我国始终坚持“中国饭碗主要装中国粮”，粮食库存充足，夏粮有望实现丰收；肉蛋奶果蔬等重要民生商品生产稳定、供应充足、运送通畅，稳定居民消费价格具有坚实的基础，我们完全有底气、有信心、有能力保持国内物价总体平稳运行！
（作者单位：国家发展改革委国际合作中心）
来源： 光明网
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