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“稀”，稀缺，去约束选择的初衷和结果可能相反 | 模糊谈判力 第六十三篇
这是桔梗在“谈判思维”的第740篇推文。
全文共2461字，阅读大约需要3分钟。
1 引言
陪审团制度，是英美法系中常见的一种庭审模式；
相信经常看美剧的朋友对此不陌生，陪审团就是在法庭上听取双方辩论的那十几个人；
而最终被告是否有罪，也将取决于这十几个人的意见。
由此，无论是控方还是辩方，都会把焦点放在如何影响和说服陪审团的努力上。
有一个很有趣的现象，经常会在庭审中发生；
当某一方的证人说了一些信息，或提供了一些证据，另一方会提出反对；
认为这些信息是道听途说，或者，这个证据违反了相关的取证流程；
此时，如果法官支持这项反对，就会对陪审团说，
反对有效，请陪审团忽略刚才证人的证词，不要采纳。
嗯，不得不承认，这是对法律流程严谨性的一个弥补措施；
你看，因为这些信息存在问题，所以，请不要听取；
本质上，法官在对陪审团说，
尽管你已经听到了刚才的那些信息，但我现在要求你，从你的脑中把这些信息删掉！
好吧，我相信这个弥补措施的初衷是好的，它想要维持庭审取证的公平性；
可这个做法存在两个问题。
第一，它违背了我们大脑的特性；
要知道，如果我要你不要去想一头大象，你的脑中立刻就会出现一头大象；
也就是说，大脑是否关注一个信息，是我们无法从主观上进行“禁止”的。
第二，它违背了心理常识；
当我们发现某个信息被“禁止”后，就会出现“禁果”效应；
越是被“严格限制”的东西，我们就越是忍不住想要去关注；
或者说，
当有人限制我们的“信息选择自由”，我们对这项信息的渴求度，反而会提高。
“请陪审团忽略刚才证人的证词，不要采纳！”
你觉得陪审团在最终做出“有罪还是无罪”决断时，真的不会思考这些信息？
甚至于，一个本来希望“通过禁止信息来造成影响”的做法，会不会反过来激励了这个信息更加受到关注，而导致了更糟的影响呢？
2 信息禁止
我们依然在“模糊谈判力”这个系列推文中，它的思维方式启发自牛津大学的实验心理学研究。
今天要聊的，依然是“七字说服力”的第六个字，“稀”；
“稀”，就是“稀缺”的意思，
越是“稀缺”的东西，越让人在乎，也就越有说服力。
我们在上一篇推文中介绍了“心理抗拒理论”，它也是“稀”字说服力的一种心理学解释；
当“选择”变得稀缺了，动机反而更强烈了。
当我推荐给你一本书，你并未听说过，你想要看它的动机很小；
但如果我再告诉你，“这是一本禁书”，你会有什么反应？
是不是突然觉得“想要看的动机”，要比刚才大了一点？
这几秒钟的前后，这本书的内容有什么变化吗？
没有。
你的兴趣爱好有什么变化吗？
没有。
那为什么动机变大了？
因为之前没人干涉你的读书选择，但知道了“禁书”之后，你感受到自己的“选择”变少了，被约束了，你感受到了“稀缺”；
于是，你便更想看它了。
每个国家都会采取“色情文化管控”的措施，我们国家也不例外；
几十年来，我们都严格执行“禁止色情传播”的政策。
但几十年前，当录像机刚刚流行的时候，就几乎每个人家里都会藏着几盘“huang带”；
越是“偷偷摸摸”的藏着，就越是引起人们的兴趣；
“性”的话题变得隐晦而神秘，以至于学校课堂上的“生理卫生课本”，都会被人趋之若鹜。
时至今日，“色情”依然被禁止，但我相信在互联网如此发达的今天，获取这样的信息反而更容易了，对吗？
“信息被禁止”的结果，似乎和“禁止”的初衷并不一致。
3 禁止演讲
1973年，北卡罗来纳大学的心理学家，史蒂芬-沃克尔教授，做了一个有趣的心理学实验；
实验对象是校园里的144名应届毕业大学生；
实验内容是告诉这些学生，一项关于“反对校园宿舍出入制度”的演讲将要举行的消息；
在实验设计中，学生们被分为两组；
史蒂芬教授告诉第一组同学，这个演讲遭到学校反对，会被禁止举行；
但他告诉第二组同学，这个演讲会正常举行；
实验的目的，是比较两组同学对这个演讲的“期待程度”；
结果显示，第一组同学要比第二组“更期待”这场演讲；
不仅如此，第二组同学还要比第二组同学，更加“反对校园宿舍管理制度”，哪怕他们还根本没有听过这场演讲具体讲了什么。
“禁止演讲”的初衷，应该是希望更少的人反对这项制度；
但其导致的结果却背道而驰。
（详细实验见：The Effects of Censorship on Attitude Change: The Influence of Censor and Communication Characteristics，Stephen Worchel, Susan Arnold, Michael Baker，University of North Carolina, Sptember 1975,doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-1816.1975.tb00678.x）
4 独家消息
当然，相同的道理还能被用在有效说服的道路上；
其实，“信息”并不需要完全禁止，有时候，只是“独家信息”，也能带来类似的说服力效果。
1982年，阿姆拉姆-科尼辛斯基（Amram Knishinsky），一名亚利桑那州大学的研究生，做了一个有趣的社会实验；
阿姆拉姆，同时还是一家牛肉进口公司的老板；
他针对“稀”字说服力在“信息禁止”上的原理，设计了一套销售策略；
阿姆拉姆的公司，主要服务于本地的超市和食物零售店；
公司的销售，经常通过给这些客户打电话来推销自己的进口牛肉；
为了比较效果，阿姆拉姆分别尝试了三种不同的“销售措辞”；
第一组，销售致电时，会先简单介绍自己的牛肉产品，然后询问对方是否购买；
第二组，销售致电时，除了介绍产品外，还会附加告诉客户，“据悉，未来几个月，进口牛肉的供给量将会被减少”；
第三组，销售致电时，除了产品介绍，附件“未来供给会减少”的信息，还会再多告诉客户一条“独家信息”：
这个消息目前还未公开，它来自我司上游的一家供应链，目前只有他们知道。
结果很惊人，第二组策略下，客户购买牛肉的数量，是第一组的两倍；
这好理解，因为第二组客户得知了未来牛肉会“稀缺”，这对他们的采购需求产生了更大的说服力；
但更惊人的是，第三组策略下，客户购买牛肉的数量，是第一组的六倍！
这意味着，第三组客户不仅得知了“牛肉的稀缺”，还得知了“这条消息的稀缺”；
在“稀”字说服力的双重加持下，销量激增。
（相关实验见：The effects of scarcity of material and exclusivity of information on industrial buyer perceivecd risk in provoking a purchase decision, Arizona State University, Amaram Knishinsky, 1982）
5 小结
值得一提的是，今天内容的背后，依然都是“模糊谈判论”的影子；
分类、二元、语言、极端；
“稀”，“稀缺”的本质，是对“战Vs逃”二元差异的极化；
当我们尝试画出一个分类，战 Vs 逃（做Vs不做），人们的大脑迅速二元化，寻找决策动机；
当“动机”还没出现之前，这个分类对我们来说就是模糊的，没有说服力；
“稀”，可以让我们在谈判中撕开这个分类，让人对“失去”的感受越分明，“稀”字说服力就越极端；
说服力的流动，再次从模糊走向极端。
–
–
–
这里是“谈判思维”！
“模糊谈判力 第六十三篇” 待续
— 桔梗
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多字五行属什么属性——解密多字五行属性的奥秘 在中国传统文化中，五行理论是一种重要的观念，被广泛应用于占卜、命理、风水等方面。而对于起名文化来说，五行理论也是非常重要的一部分。当一…
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企业取名字大全免费测试1518，企业取名字大全免费测试佳阳美业
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在创业公司的早期阶段，品牌命名是至关重要的一步。品牌名称直接影响着公司的声誉、知名度以及市场表现。在本文中，我们将探讨命名对于创业公司的重要性和影响，并提供一些品牌命名的原则和方法…
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会字五行属什么(慧字五行属什么)
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慧字五行属什么？解析慧字在五行学说中的归属 在中华文化中，五行学说一直扮演着重要的角色。五行学说将自然界的万物分为五行，分别是木、火、土、金和水。每个字都拥有自己的五行属性，字形中…
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中国最佳建筑公司TOP19
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在中国最佳建筑公司TOP20这一期中，小编带大家了解了位于排行榜第20名的建筑公司时境建筑（Atelier Alter Architects）。那么今天，我们接着来看看排行第19名…
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稀字五行属什么？稀字起名意义！
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“稀”，稀缺，但愿所有的“失去”都能“复得” | 模糊谈判力 第五十六篇 这是桔梗在“谈判思维”的第733篇推文。 全文共2297字，阅读大约需要3分钟。 1 引言1月7日，利奥走…
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羽字取名的寓意是什么(羽字取名的寓意是什么五行属啥)
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羽字取名的寓意是什么？ 起名是人们在追求美好生活的过程中的一环，一个充满寓意的名字可以带给人们积极向上的力量和好运。而羽字取名，则寓意着飞翔、自由和轻盈，在中国文化中具有深厚的象征…
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河北企业名称核名查询系统？广东企业名称核名查询系统！
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