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“稀”，稀缺，突然变化导致的稀缺威力更大 | 模糊谈判力 第六十五篇
这是桔梗在“谈判思维”的第742篇推文。
全文共2477字，阅读大约需要3分钟。
1 引言
1985年，可口可乐公司宣布了一项新的市场策略；
他们决定停止使用旧的可乐配方，并采用一种新的可乐配方。
这项市场策略，被时代杂志评为“近十年最失败的市场营销案例之一”。
因为“新配方可乐”让那些喝惯了老可乐的消费者极为愤怒；
数以万计的爱喝可乐的美国人，公开反对和抵制可口可乐公司的这个做法，强烈要求把“旧配方”可乐还给他们。
盖伊-穆林思，是一名西雅图的商人，他也是一名传统可口可乐的资深爱好者；
为了能够给可口可乐公司施压，盖伊自发建立了一个组织，叫做“美国传统可乐爱好者联盟”（Old Cola Drinkers of America）；
并且，盖伊带领这个组织想尽一切办法来声援对“新配方”的反对活动；
这包括印发了大量标有“反对新配方可乐”的衣服和佩戴徽章；
还设立了一个电话热线，吸引大量的可乐爱好者来表达自己的不满；
盖伊甚至宣称要采取法律诉讼的手段，来迫使可口可乐公司恢复配方。
在巨大的压力下，可口可乐公司总裁，唐纳德-吉奥（Donald Keough），不得不撤回了所有新配方产品，把传统可乐再次放在了货架上。
这让我们很好奇，这么重要的策略，可口可乐公司难道不事先做好充足的市场调研吗？
事实当然不是这样，1981年到1984年的四年里，可口可乐公司花费了大量的时间和金钱做“新配方”的测试和调研；
他们在美国的二十五个大城市里，先后对二十万的消费者做了“口味盲测”的调查。
数据非常明显，喜欢新口味的比例是55%，喜欢旧口味的比例是45%；
如果不是盲测（测试时在杯子上贴上新旧标识），“口味测试”中人们依然更喜欢新口味，而且新旧比例是61%Vs39%。
更加讽刺的是，就连盖伊-穆林思，也在“口味盲测”中选择更加喜欢“新配方”多一点；
对，你没看错，就连那个专门建立了“美国传统可乐爱好者联盟”的盖伊，那个要把可口可乐公司告上法庭的人，自己在“盲测”中居然发现自己更爱喝的并不是传统可乐！
那这一场遭到了前所未有反对声音的失败营销，到底是因为什么呢？
2 突然变化
我们依然在“模糊谈判力”这个系列推文中，它的思维方式启发自牛津大学的实验心理学研究。
今天要聊的，依然是“七字说服力”的第六个字，“稀”；
“稀”，就是“稀缺”的意思，
越是“稀缺”的东西，越让人在乎，也就越有说服力。
“稀”字在两种特殊的场景下，能够最大化它的说服力；
一种叫做“变化”，另一种叫做“竞争”。
（有关“竞争”的优化，放在下一篇聊）
所谓“变化”的场景，指的是，
当人们习惯了一种“非稀缺”的环境，而突然发现某些事物变得“稀缺”了，所产生的“稀”字影响力更大。
简单地说，如果某些东西一直都很“稀缺”，那它的“稀”字说服力并非很强大；
但如果某些事物我们已经长期习惯它们的存在，突然发现它们的“稀缺”，情绪上就能感受到巨大的“稀”字影响力。
回到文首的例子里，为什么“新配方可乐”的营销如此失败？
真的是“新口味”相比“旧口味”太难喝吗？
如果是，怎么解释调研阶段的数据？又怎么解释旧口味的忠实粉丝在“盲测”时也喜欢“新配方”呢？
真实的原因在于，“新配方可乐”导致了“旧口味可乐”产生了急剧的变化，变得极为“稀缺”。
这种因“变化”而造成的“稀缺”，让可乐爱好者产生了巨大的情绪，
他们突然发现，之前的可乐喝不到了，这太不能接受了。
而这个感受与新口味是否好喝，并无关联。
请注意，值得思考的是，在测试阶段，情况则完全不同；
那时候，市场上广泛存在的是“旧口味”，测试中尝到的“新配方”反而是“稀缺”物；
所以，被测试者对新口味更喜爱，完全符合当时的场景条件，也符合“稀”字说服力的规律。
3 曲奇饼干
简单来说，我们对一件事物，会因为“它最近变得稀缺”，而变得更加喜爱。
1975年，美国弗吉尼亚大学的心理学家，史蒂芬-沃切尔教授，做了一个非常有名的实验；
这个实验很简单，就是准备了一个装着巧克力曲奇饼干的玻璃罐子，然后交给实验对象，请他们品尝并作出喜欢程度的打分评价。
为了作出比较，实验分成了三组不同的条件；
第一组，工作人员准备了一个装满着10块巧克力曲奇的玻璃罐子，供实验对象品尝；
第二组，工作人员准备了一个装满着2块巧克力曲奇的玻璃罐子，供实验对象品尝；
第三组，工作人员先把一个装着10块巧克力曲奇的玻璃罐子交给实验对象，但在品尝之前，突然把其中的曲奇拿走了8块，只剩下2块供品尝；
实验结果显示，第二组实验对象对曲奇的喜爱程度要高于第一组，原因也很简单，因为第二组感受到的“稀缺”程度更大；
而第三组实验对象对曲奇的喜爱还要高于第二组，这里的原因就在于今天聊的主题，“突然变化造成的稀缺”；
虽然最终，第三组也是面对2块曲奇饼干，但他们的感受却从10块跌落到2块，产生了更大的稀缺感。
（相关实验见：Worchel, S., Lee, J., & Adewole, A. (1975). Effects of supply and demand on ratings of object value. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32(5), 906–914. doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.32.5.906）
可口可乐公司在1985年的营销错误，就是忽略了这样的规律；
但类似的故事却屡见不鲜，1996年，宝洁公司（P&G）打算尝试取消之前在市场上发放的“优惠券”；
当然，虽然优惠券取消了，但宝洁会保证降低商品单价来弥补这部分优惠。
但他们忽略了“稀缺”的规律，要知道“优惠券”（Coupon）传统由来已久，美国民众已经习惯了几十年来从杂志上剪下优惠券的习惯；
这次取消优惠券的尝试，遭到了消费者的巨大反对，他们开始投诉、抗议、甚至抵制宝洁的产品；
这让宝洁公司的营销团队苦不堪言。
可这能说明美国民众就喜欢用优惠券吗？
并不是。
根据宝洁公司的数据统计，他们每年大约发放3000亿张优惠券，但真正被使用的数量不到2%；
宝洁公司COO，德科-雅格说，
每年发这些优惠券的纸张，相当于要砍掉8百万棵树，而人们又不会真正使用他们。
那为什么当优惠券一旦取消，人们的反对情绪又这么大呢？
很简单，“突然变化造成的稀缺”，让长期拥有优惠券的人们产生了强烈的情绪，主导了这样的结果。
4 小结
值得一提的是，今天内容的背后，依然都是“模糊谈判论”的影子；
分类、二元、语言、极端；
“稀”，“稀缺”的本质，是对“战Vs逃”二元差异的极化；
当我们尝试画出一个分类，战 Vs 逃（做Vs不做），人们的大脑迅速二元化，寻找决策动机；
当“动机”还没出现之前，这个分类对我们来说就是模糊的，没有说服力；
“稀”，可以让我们在谈判中撕开这个分类，让人对“失去”的感受越分明，“稀”字说服力就越极端；
说服力的流动，再次从模糊走向极端。
–
–
–
这里是“谈判思维”！
“模糊谈判力 第六十五篇” 待续
— 桔梗
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文|赵金厚 编辑|燕子 图片|网络 过了麦半月、二十天左右，就到了摸爬叉的时候，儿时，我把洗澡、割草、摸爬叉作为娱乐生活的三件美事。 喝罢汤，月牙儿升到柳梢，我们姐弟就拿着竹竿和手…
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道，指做人的准则和规矩。 道，右边一个首，左边一个走，合起来表示“从头开始行走”。所以，道字的本义就是从头开始行走。后来引申为道路，交通规则，再后来就发展为做人的准则和规矩以及与人…
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陈圣东 人人都说自己是炎黄子孙，什么是炎？什么是黄？这是关乎中国和中华民族根基和源头的重大问题。当今的中国已进入中华民族伟大复兴的时代，我们身为炎黄子孙，再不能把炎黄停留在上古传说…
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上了年纪，半夜起来刷手机。一则新闻令人惋惜，一位公司高管因跑步运动过度不幸去世年仅五十几岁。正值年富力强之际就英年早逝，实在是令人惋惜。 关于这样类型的报道不是一两次而是经常性的。…
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